The season ending ATP Finals takes centre stage over the next week at the O2 Arena in London, as the world’s top eight players battle it out for the coveted season ending title. Novak Djokovic is favourite to lift a record equalling 6th title, however with four different winners in the last four years, this could be another open race. Check back each day as expert tipsters Form Labs guide you to where the value lies with their betting preview and tips for all the singles action.
A superb ending to Daniil Medvedev’s season has seen him lift the final Masters event of the season on this surface in Paris, and having beaten both Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic in straight sets, he finished top of his Tokyo 1970 group here. That sees him take on the second seed Rafa Nadal in the semis, which will be their fourth career meeting and the Russian will hope he can finally overturn him.
The Spaniard had to dig deep to overcome Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final round-robin match to earn his place in the semis here for just the fourth time. That’s quite a surprising figure given he’s now qualified for 12 straight ATP Finals on the indoor hard courts, although he has only participated in eight over that period. However, given his stature and record on the big stage, that is certainly well below par, but it seems that has already been factored into his price as the current underdog in this clash.
Interestingly, against the current top-six in the world, Medvedev has gone a mere W1-L5 on the main tour since the start of this event last year, and we just can’t be getting behind him as the favourite considering. Moreover, his W0-L3 record with Nadal is also an alarming statistic too, as their last meeting came here 12 months ago and the current price on the world number two to just win one set looks a huge price.
Roland Garros finally takes centre stage over the next few weeks nearly three months after it was originally scheduled. In the men’s draw all eyes will be on Rafa Nadal and if he can win an incredible 13th French Open title or will one of the new generation come through and steal his crown. Check back everyday for expert betting tips from tipsters Form Labs for some of the key match-up’s in both the men and women’s draw.
This will be the 54th meeting between these two players, and what a match it looks set to be. Novak Djokovic leads the meetings by 29 wins to Rafa Nadal’s 24, but we all know what threat the left-hander brings on these clay courts
The Spaniard is yet to drop a set this fortnight, and the former 12-time Roland Garros champion has done that on five previous occasions in his career here, going on to win the final 3-0 in three of those. Only one of those came against a ‘Big Three’ opponent however, when beating Roger Federer back in the 2008 final, but he’s still going to extremely difficult to beat at this stage of the tournament given he’s won all 12 of his finals to date. In fact, seven finished 3-1 and the other five were all straight set victories, and so the Serbian looks to have his work cut out to just win a set or two, let alone lift his second French Open title.
However, if there was a man on the tour at the minute to do just that though it would be Nole. He’s yet to be beaten in 2020 from his 37 matches when excluding his defaulted match at the US Open, and although he went the distance against Stefanos Tsitsipas last time out, he did have a match point in the third set. He too looks unbeatable at the minute, like back in 2015 when only Stan Wawrinka stopped him from completing the clean sweep of the four Slams in a single calendar year, and that only excites us more at the prospect of this matchup.
Although this will be the third biggest price Nadal has ever been in a Roland Garros final, we feel it’s for good reason. Never has the Serbian had a better chance of overturning him on this surface and having won an impressive nine of their 12 meetings since the start of 2015, including three of six on clay, we’d have to give the Serb more of a chance than the market currently gives him. Furthermore, Rafa has lost both his matches with top 10 opposition this year, one of which came against Djokovic himself, and we have to get behind the world number to at least win two sets.
Throughout the 2020 US Open tennis GentingBet and tipsters Form Labs will help guide you to where the value might sit for the 2020 US Open tennis, by providing daily betting tips to some of the key matchup’s. Check back each day throughout the Flushing Meadows showpiece and see who the experts are backing.
We nearly experienced yet another choke from Alexander Zverev, as having gone into the game as around the 4/11 favourite he proceeded to lose the opening two sets to Pablo Carreno-Busta. He did rally himself to get over the line though, taking the final three sets with relative ease. That puts the German into his first ever Grand Slam final and although he’ll feel relieved it isn’t against any of the ‘Big Three’ – Novak Djokovic, Rafa Nadal & Roger Federer – it won’t exactly be any easier facing Dominic Thiem.
The Austrian has dropped just one set so far this fortnight and fully deserves his favouritism. That included matches against all of Marin Cilic, Felix Auger-Aliasssime, Alex De Minaur and Daniil Medvedev, with the latter being the tournament favourite following the exit of Djokovic and it’s going to take a monumental performance to stop him getting his name on the title. It’s even more remarkable that he also managed a similar feat at the Australian Open at the start of the year before losing out to Nole in the final, defeating both Nadal and Zverev in the quarters and semis respectively. Interestingly, he did lose in his opening match against Filip Krajinovic 6-2 6-1 at this venue in the Cincinnati Open just before the US Open, and so he is by no means unbeatable.
That Melbourne Park clash between the two went to four sets, with Thiem winning the last two in tiebreakers and so this could be closer than people might think. That was their ninth career meeting to date as the Austrian leads the way W7-L2, however, both Zverev’s wins have come from their last six since the second half of the 2016 season, while one of those victories for the second seed was on his prefered clay surface at the French Open which we’re happy to ignore. We therefore feel that the money coming in for the favourite may have a slight bias based on their most recent performances, especially since a four or five-setter is characteristic of the underdog anyway.
Moreover, it’s worth noting Zverev leads this years’ US Open stats for aces, first serve receiving points and break points won, while he’s in the top 10 for second serve receiving points won and percentage of first serve points won. Of course, he’s played more tennis over the last two weeks than most his competitors, but he’s also converted the fifth most break points of the players to have had more than 20 opportunities (53%) and Thiem only really features on the break points from those statistics, still behind the German.
The fifth seeded underdog has a career record of W4-L3 at Grand Slam and Masters event finals, while that compares to his opponents’ W1-L6, although two of those came against the ‘King of Clay’ Rafa Nadal at Roland Garros. With that in mind, we’re very surprised that the handicap for the German to win just one set isn’t much shorter, and that gets our backing.
This will be the 140th edition of the US Open and like always it will be held at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Centre in New York. However, this year, due to the current circumstances, it will be held behind closed doors and that will certainly give it a slightly different feel, most notably the fact that only four of the top 10 in the rankings will be attending the US Open this campaign: Karolina Pliskova (3rd in the world), Sofia Kenin (4th), Serena Williams (9th) and Naomi Osaka (10th). In fact, if Cincinnati is anything to go by, we can expect a fair few upset as rustiness players a part following a four-month mid-season lay off. For the second season running Flushing Meadows threw up yet another maiden winner of the title with Bianca Andreescu taking the honours. That means that all five winners since 2015 have won it for the first time while only Angelique Kerber from that bunch had previously won a Grand Slam and so it could well toss up a few more surprises. Tipsters Form Labs guide you to where the value might lie for the US Open tennis women’s draw.
32/46 finalists have been seeded since 1997, with 36 being in the top-10 seeds and 25 in the top-four.
15/23 winners have been in the top-four seeds.
Karolina Pliskova heads the seeds although her form leaves at lot to be desired. Three straight defeats now on the hard surface, the last of which came at this Flushing Meadows venue in her opening round match of Cincinnati. She does have pedigree here though, with a fourth round, two quarters and a runner-up in her four visits since 2016, and she won’t mind her run to the third round where she’s scheduled to face Jennifer Brady. The American 28th seed won in Lexington in mid-August, beating the likes of Coco Gauff and Magda Linette en route, although she did crash out in the opening round last week.
Tussling to face the winner of that in the fourth round is 2016 winner Angelique Kerber, Alison Riske and Tatjana Maria. The latter hasn’t advanced past the first round of a Grand Slam now for five consecutive tournaments, while Riske has crashed out in the opening round here in five of her six appearances, not to mention she lost in straight sets last week in Cincinnati.
Since her sensational run to the Roland Garros final in 2019, 12th seed Marketa Vondrousova is yet to win a Slam match and is a woeful W4-L8 at all tournaments off the red surface. 23rd seed Yulia Putintseva should benefit from that and although the Kazakhstani doesn’t exactly have the best of CV’s, a third round appearance at the US Open and Australian Open at the start of the year should put her in good stead.
The two seeded players in the final group of eight players will probably have more chance in Kristina Mladenovic and Petra Martic. The former French superstar may have reached two finals here since 2016 on the doubles circuit, but that hasn’t correlated over to her singles performances with a best of three second rounds. Croatian Martic, reached an impressive semi-final in Dubai in February, while fourth rounds here and at Wimbledon in 2019 make her the one to beat for us in this section.
Tournament favourite Naomi Osaka won this competition in 2018 and backed that up with the Aussie Open just four months later. She may not have been to the business end of any Slam since, but a fourth round here 12 months ago while currently in the semis at this venue in her first Premier event since the enforced break, she deserves to lead the market.
Coco Gauff, Danielle Collins and Anett Kontaveit look to be her main contenders in the top half of the second quarter. The latter of the trio looks to be in the best form with a quarter in the Australian Open and last week here at Cincinnati, as well as a runner-up in Palermo at the start of August. However, it was Osaka that beat her in the quarters on Wednesday, while she faces Collins in the first round so we’d be wary of getting behind either of them, while Gauff has seeded player Anastasija Sevastova first up and the Japanese top seed scheduled for the third round.
The main challengers to take it to Osaka from the bottom half of this section look to be Elena Rybakina (11th seed), Dayana Yastremska (19th) and Petra Kvitova (6th) from the seeds, as well as Shelby Rogers, Marie Bouzkova and Jessica Pegula. The latter two unseeded players face off against one another in their opener, while sixth seed Kvitova lost two of her final three exhibitions at the end of July as well as her opening round last week to her potential third round opponent Bouzkova. Moreover, Rogers may have beaten Serena Williams earlier this month, but she’s won just one Slam hard court match now since the start of 2018 and is scheduled to meet Rybakina in the second round.
That leaves either Rybakina or Yastremska from this bottom section for us as the most likely to advance to a quarter-final. As previously mentioned, Rogers could put up some resistance to the 21-year-old 11th seed who hasn’t exactly proven she can continue on from her impressive W21-L4 before the enforced break, as she lost in the first round to Ekaterina Alexandrova last week. However, a win, three runners-up spots and two third round from her six 2020 tournaments is phenomenal going and she should have too much for Yastremska.
Serena Williams’ quarter doesn’t look too daunting. The 23-time Grand Slam champion has a straightforward route to the fourth round with Sloane Stephens unlikely to cause her any problems in the scheduled third round. It’s here that a very talented women who beat her last week will likely face her. Should Maria Sakkari fend off a challenge from 2019 Roland Garros semi-finalist Amanda Anisimova in the third round, she’ll be raring to take on Williams again. The Greek is W11-L6 since the start of the Australian Open, reaching her furthest ever in a Slam there of the fourth round, before bowing out to Kvitova and she will at least put up a fight at the last 16 stage.
Seventh seed Madison Keys heads the top half of the third section in this US Open draw and she always leaves her best performances for this tournament. Three last 16s, a semi and runner-up in the most recent five appearances here is impressive, although she did get thrashed 6-4 6-1 by Ons Jabeur last week. She’ll also have to keep a keen eye on Lexington runner-up Jil Teichmann in a potential second round, while either Aliza Cornet who reached the third round at Cincinnati or 25th seed Shuai Zhang who was runner-up at Hobert in January and reached the third at Melbourne Park, would be tough matches in her path too.
Garbine Muguruza looks to have it her way to meet whoever advances from that group of players in the fourth round, with other seeded player Donna Vekic not showing much in the shape of form. However, that is on the assumption that the Spaniard replicate her Aussie Open runner-up form earlier this year having not played a competitive match since February.
Aryna Sabalenka has been unfortunate with her draw as the unseeded current Cincinnati semi-finalist Victoria Azarenka is scheduled to play her in the second round. Both Iga Switek and 29th seed Veronika Kudermetova have to be respected in a scheduled third round with the winner between Sabalenka and Azarenka, but neither look capable of beating that pair.
Jo Konta will like her draw with a British first round against Heather Watson, and either out of touch players Venus Williams and Karolina Muchova in a scheduled third round. The ninth seed is currently in the semis at Flushing Meadows in the Premier 5 event where she faces the Belarusian Azarenka.
The bottom half of this final quarter looks fairly straight forward too. Elise Mertens has already finished runner-up in Prague and is into the semis at Cincinnati on her return from the Covid break, making her without a doubt the one to beat. Ekaterina Alexandrova may have a thing or two to say about that, but a W1-L3 on her return doesn’t look quite so impressive.
The tussle to play them in the last 16 looks to be another straight shootout between Australian Open winner Sofia Kenin and Ons Jabeur. The later Tunisian reached the quarters at the only Slam in 2020 back in January and reached that same round last week before bowing out to Azarenka. However, it was Kenin that knocked her out at Melbourne Park and it’s no surprise to see the second seed amongst the favourites. It should be noted though, that she’s lost her only competitive match since the return to Aliza Cornet 6-1 7-6.
US Open 2020 Betting Tips
With it being an unusual Grand Slam given the current circumstances it would a surprise if there weren’t a few early upsets, but if last week at Cincinnati is anything to go by the best players generally tend to com out on top towards the business end.
Pliskova will take confidence in the fact that her scheduled third round match with Brady would be just the third time in her career she’s made it that far at a Slam, with the other two coming way back in 2017 at Aussie Open and here. However, Caroline Garcia scheduled in the second round and either Kerber or Riske in her fourth round, followed by another tough fixture in the quarters makes us unsure on her third favouritism, not to mention she lost her solitary competitive match in straight sets on her return. Instead, it’s Petra Martic that holds the value for us in this first quarter. The Croatian should breeze through to at least the fourth round like she did here 12 months ago, only this time Serena Williams won’t be waiting in her path at that stage and we feel she can turn a few heads this fortnight.
We’re struggling to see who can stop the in-form Japanese superstar Naomi Osaka in this second quarter. She’s W9-L0 against all of Collins, Kontaveit, Yastremska and Kvitova, who’re tussling it out to face her in either the fourth or quarter-final rounds and although she’ll likely not have an easy match this fortnight, she looks to good to not get behind.
The four players that jump off the page in this section are Serena Williams, Maria Sakkari, Madison Keys and Garbine Muguruza. It’s hard to ignore the fact that Serena has lost just four times at US Open since the start of 2015 and even if she hasn’t won the event in that time, that is a remarkable run. However, the price has factored that in with her one of the two clear front runners in the market, while although Muguruza has the favourable draw her price at 18/1 doesn’t show that much appeal either given she hasn’t played a competitive match since February. Keys’ difficult draw makes her also less appealing to get behind and so it’s the Greek 15th seed who looks the most intriguing at a huge 40/1. She beat all of Cori Gauff, Yulia Putintseva and the Williams sister last week and that’s enough for us to get behind her.
Having backed Jo Konta last week at 90/1 her price doesn’t look quite so appealing now at 16/1 in a much harder tournament, even given her easy draw. Kenin in normal circumstances would be the one to back, but her defeat in Cincinnati means we’re happy to serve her, while with Azarenka and Sabalenka having such an early showdown their prices look too short for us. Therefore, it’s Elise Mertens that looks the value option. The Belgian is in great form and has won 17 of her 22 matches at the hard court Slams since the start of 2018 making her the one to beat in the fourth quarter.